Thirteen years← Back to Market

Moving used to be cheaper. That flipped in 2022.

The same math we run on today's rate, run every quarter back to 2013. For most of the decade before the pandemic, the typical American would have lowered their monthly payment by moving.

33 of 53
quarters since 2013 where moving would have cut the typical borrower's monthly payment.

Why it was negative for so long: the outstanding stock was a decade average of thirty-year loans written when rates were much higher. Moving got you into a lower payment. In 2018Q2 the average held rate finally sat below the market. Every quarter since, the number has climbed. Low point: −$184/mo in 2013Q1.

+$531+$141−$249Price of Moving = $0Moving costs more ↑↓ Moving was cheaper2026Q1: +$25320132016201920222026
2026Q1
market 6.11%held 4.40%
+$253
2013Q12026Q1
19.5%
<3%
30.4%
3–4%
16.8%
4–5%
11.2%
5–6%
22.1%
6%+
Below market (6.11%) — locked inAt or above market~51M active mortgages · 2026Q1
Year by year

2022 dwarfs everything.

Households freed (moved above today's line) minus households locked in (moved below it). Same scale, both sides.

Bars up = Freed
Households moved above today's rate
Bars down = Locked in
Households moved below today's rate
Each bar stacks:Rate effectTurnover effectFrom 2017
0+10.0M−10.0M+20.0M−20.0M+30.0M−30.0M↑ Freed↓ Locked in−1.5M2017−14.9M2018+18.5M2019+10.3M2020−10.4M2021−34.4M2022−1.2M2023+3.4M2024+4.0M2025+1.4M2026
Worst quarter in the series: 2022Q1, when a net 15.6M households were locked in.
Natural turnover

Roughly 1.3M loans a year cycle regardless of rates.

People move for jobs, kids, divorces, inheritances. Over the last four quarters, that churn added or removed +1.3M households from the "locked in" bucket — separate from anything rates did.

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Source: FHFA National Mortgage Database (quarterly) + Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED. 52 quarter-over-quarter transitions.