How rates decide who can move
All 51.4 million US mortgages, sorted by the rate they pay. The line is today's rate. It rose 3 basis points since the previous print (Jul 16 → Jul 23), and 201K households crossed it.
The average outstanding mortgage is at 4.40%. Highlighted bars are the households that crossed.
Ability to move isn't the same as choosing to
Households whose held rate now sits above the market that didn't a month ago.
Modeled from a 2.18pt gap between market and average held rate, at 9% per point.
A caveat: Sales-suppression is a model, not a measurement. People move for jobs, kids, divorces, and inheritances regardless of what their rate says. Treat this as a directional read.
Moving used to be cheaper. That flipped in 2022.
The same calculation, run every quarter back to 2013: the cost of the average American would have taken on by moving. That wasn't a glitch — it was the reason motion was so normal.
Where America's mortgages actually sit.
These are FHFA's published bands, exactly as reported. Half the country is under 4% and isn't moving regardless of what rates do.
Source: FHFA National Mortgage Database, 2026Q1. Series PCT_INTRATE_*, United States, All Mortgages. Bands sum to exactly 100%.
Where things stand
Download the full history: market data (CSV). Assumptions version 1 · updated 7/26/2026.
Curious where your rate sits?
Rate Watch tells you whether refinancing pays for your loan — with math, not marketing.
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