How rates decide who can move
All 51.4 million US mortgages, sorted by the rate they pay. The line is today's rate. It fell 8 basis points since the previous print (Oct 22 → Oct 29), and 370K households crossed it.
Purchase applications are running 61% behind last year’s pace — and mortgage rates sit at 7.37%. This is usually visible before it shows up in a monthly sales report.
Week ending Oct 23, 2026
The average outstanding mortgage is at 4.40%. Highlighted bars are the households that crossed.
Moves are running about 26% below neutral because so many households would pay more to move.
Neutral means the gap is zero, when people pay roughly what the market charges. Estimated by applying the elasticity in Fonseca & Liu (Journal of Finance, 2024) to the current 2.84pt gap. This is a linear extrapolation of a local estimate and the softest number on this page.
of mortgages are behind on payments — historically low
The households locked below today's rate aren't struggling to pay — 98.1% are current. They simply won't trade a 4.40% loan for a 7.24% one. Almost nobody is being forced to sell, which is exactly why so few homes come up for sale.
Rates aren't the only thing moving. Cheap homes are selling less, expensive homes are selling a lot more. See what's actually selling →
Where America's mortgages actually sit.
These are FHFA's published bands, exactly as reported. Half the country is under 4% and isn't moving regardless of what rates do.
Source: FHFA National Mortgage Database, 2026Q1. Series PCT_INTRATE_*, United States, All Mortgages. Bands sum to exactly 100%.
Where things stand
Download the full history: market data (CSV). Assumptions version 1 · updated 7/26/2026.
Curious where your rate sits?
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