CasaMint EconomyForecasts as of September 2026 · Same source as our Forecast page · Free to cite
Recession outlook
Possible recession
Inflation went the wrong way. It's back to 3.4%.
The 2026 CPI call rose to 3.4%. Jobs hold at 4.2% and GDP at 2.0%. Rising inflation with a steady economy is the one combination that keeps the Fed parked.
Data source
The numbers, through 2027
Steady
Unemployment
4.2% → 4.2%
2026 into 2027 on the current forecast.
Improving
GDP growth
2.0% ↑ 2.5%
Modest growth — no expansion, no contraction.
Improving
Inflation (CPI)
3.4% ↓ 1.7%
The one the Fed is still watching.
The full record
Inflation is the outlier — watch it swing.
What Fannie Mae expected 2026 inflation (CPI) to average, at each reading on record.
The line turned back up to 3.4%. Every rate cut priced into next year assumed it wouldn't.
| Forecast published | 2026 avg. CPI | Change from prior reading |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 2.5% | — |
| February 2026 | 2.5% | flat |
| March 2026 | 2.6% | +0.1 |
| April 2026 | 3.2% | +0.6 |
| May 2026 | 3.5% | +0.3 |
| June 2026 | 3.8% | +0.3 |
| July 2026 | 3.3% | −0.5 |
| August 2026 | 3.1% | −0.2 |
| September 2026 | 3.4% | +0.3 |
Source: Fannie Mae ESR Group monthly housing & economic forecasts. Readings shown are the months on record — not every intervening month is tracked.
Curious what's coming to the market, not just what's happening in it? New construction is running ahead of last year.See supply on the way →
Recession, 2026–27
Possible recession
Unemployment, 2027
4.2%
GDP growth, 2027
2.5%
Inflation, 2027
1.7%