CasaMint EconomyForecasts as of July 2026 · Same source as our Forecast page · Free to cite
Recession outlook
No recession
GDP holds. Jobs hold. Inflation is the one still moving.
Inflation is falling and still above target: 3.6% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027. Unemployment sits at 4.3%, GDP at 2.0%. Headed the right direction, but still running above the Fed's comfort zone.
Data source
The numbers, through 2027
Steady
Unemployment
4.3% → 4.3%
2026 into 2027 on the current forecast.
Watch
GDP growth
2.0% ↑ 2.4%
Modest growth — no expansion, no contraction.
Improving
Inflation (CPI)
3.6% ↓ 1.9%
The one the Fed is still watching.
The full record
Inflation is the outlier — watch it swing.
What Fannie Mae expected 2026 inflation (CPI) to average, at each reading on record.
The line is coming down to 3.6%. Below 2% is the number that moves mortgage rates, and it isn't there yet.
| Forecast published | 2026 avg. CPI | Change from prior reading |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 2.5% | — |
| February 2026 | 2.5% | flat |
| March 2026 | 2.6% | +0.1 |
| April 2026 | 3.2% | +0.6 |
| May 2026 | 3.5% | +0.3 |
| June 2026 | 3.8% | +0.3 |
| July 2026 | 3.6% | −0.2 |
Source: Fannie Mae ESR Group monthly housing & economic forecasts. Readings shown are the months on record — not every intervening month is tracked.
Recession, 2026–27
No recession
Unemployment, 2027
4.3%
GDP growth, 2027
2.4%
Inflation, 2027
1.9%