6.7%to6.8%
Where Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed to sit, quarter by quarter, through the end of 2027. Today's actual rate: 6.95% (as of Sep 17, 2026).
As of Sep 16, markets see zero chance of a Fed rate cut on Oct 28.
Instead: 0% odds rates hold steady · 100% odds of a hike
When cut odds disappear like this, mortgage rates don't get easier — they tend to hold or climb. That makes it very unlikely the 6.7%–6.8% forecast above comes down soon, and a real chance it moves higher instead.
Source: CME FedWatch. Derived from 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing. Data as of Sep 16, 2026, 1:16 AM CT.
The rate forecast hasn't moved in months. It's 6.5%.
The 2026 call is 6.5%. It was 6.5% last month too. Today's actual rate is 6.95%. Nothing in this forecast rewards waiting.
Every revision, month by month.
What Fannie Mae expected the average 2026 mortgage rate to be — tracked by the month they said it.
—% straight through 2027. Fannie Mae stopped forecasting a drop.
| Forecast published | 2026 avg. rate | Change from prior reading |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 6.0% | — |
| February 2026 | 6.0% | flat |
| March 2026 | 6.0% | flat |
| April 2026 | 5.8% | −0.2 |
| May 2026 | 6.2% | +0.4 |
| June 2026 | 6.3% | +0.1 |
| July 2026 | 6.3% | flat |
| August 2026 | 6.5% | +0.2 |
| September 2026 | 6.5% | flat |
Source: Fannie Mae ESR Group monthly housing forecasts. Figures are the forecast full-year 2026 average 30-year fixed rate as published that month.
Your mortgage rate is two numbers stacked on top of each other.
Almost nobody explains this, and it's the reason rates can move differently than the headlines suggest. Your rate is what investors charge the US government, plus everything it costs to turn that into a loan for you.
That second number is right about where it usually sits.
The gap is close to its long-run average of 1.89 points. Right now this layer isn't adding to or subtracting from what you'd historically expect to pay.
Right now your rate is tracking Treasury yields fairly closely. When you hear the 10-year moved, expect your quote to move roughly with it — this layer isn't distorting the relationship much at the moment.
10-Year Treasury (DGS10) and 30-year fixed average (MORTGAGE30US), both as of Thursday, Sep 17, 2026 · Federal Reserve (FRED) / Freddie Mac
The wider economy isn't the problem.
Put together: the market is frozen because of rates, not because the economy is breaking. That's actually the reassuring part of this forecast.
See the full economic backdrop →More homes are being built than a year ago.
Rates and the economy explain today's prices. This explains tomorrow's inventory — what builders are breaking ground on right now, months before it ever hits a listing site.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau & HUD, New Residential Construction, seasonally adjusted annual rate, single-family.